A study released Tuesday reports forecasts that both the United States and the world populations will be declining by the end of this century triggering drastic shifts in the global economic force.
Dr. Richard Horton, the chief of the British Journal, The Lancet, published the study: “The 21st century will see a change in the story of our human society. “As Europe and Asia decrease, Africa and the Arab World will shape our futures.
“By the end of the 20th century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the USA being the major powers. This will really be a new world for which we can plan today.
The U.S. population is expected to grow until the middle of the century, followed in 2100 by a decline from less than 10 percent, to 336 million, according to the report.
The overall U.S. fertility rate – reflecting the cumulative number of women ‘s children over their lifetime – is predicted to fall steadily from 1.8 in 2017 to 1.5 in 2100. It is well below the minimum birth rate (2.1) considered necessary to sustain current rates of the population without immigration in the long term, the study concluded.
By 2100, after India, Nigeria, and China, the United States is expected to have the fourth-largest population of working-age in the world-around 181 million, and immigration is likely to support the US labor force. Nonetheless, analysts caution against political opposition in recent years to challenge the country’s population and economic growth prospects.
The study shows a major and persistent decrease in fertility in girls and women ‘s access and education worldwide to modern contraceptives. The world’s population is expected to peak by approximately 9.7 billion in 2064 and then decrease by 2000 to approximately 8.8 billion – around 2 billion less than previous projections.
“Continued population growth over the century is no longer the world’s most likely course,” said Christopher Murray, head of research at the University of Washington.
Around 2100, India, Nigeria, China, and the USA are expected to be the four world’s most populous nations.
The study also suggests, with countries that promote liberal immigration that is better able to sustain their population and support economic growth in view of decreasing rates for fertility, that the population may decline in some countries through immigration.
“This study offers all countries an opportunity to start rethinking their migration, jobs, and economic growth policies to tackle demographic change challenges,” Murray said.
The authors of the study also note that countries’ response to a decline in population should not compromise advancement in women’s equality and rights to reproduce.
According to the report, sub-Saharan Africa is possibly becoming more and more dominant geopolitically as its population increases. The only nation in Nigeria to see its working-age population rise over the course of the century is estimated in the world to be the 10 most populous countries (from 86 million in 2017 to 458 million in 2100).
On the other side of the world ‘s population, many of Asia and Europe’s most rapidly declining populations are to be found. In 23 countries and territories, including Japan, Thailand, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and South Korea, populations are projected to decrease by a further half.
‘For high-income countries with lower fertilization rates, open immigration policies and social policies that support families that have desired children are the best solutions to maintain current population levels; economic growth and geopolitical security,’ Murray said.
“There is still a real risk of some countries adopting policies limiting access to reproductive health services with potentially catastrophic effects in the face of declining population,” he said. ‘Freedom and dignity for women must be at the top of the development agenda of each nation.’ ‘